The seat maths follows the Electoral Act and the Electoral Commission's own method:
- A party can get list seats if it wins at least 5% of the party vote or at least one electorate.
- Electorates won by independents, or by parties without a party list, come off the 120 first.
- The remaining seats are shared between the qualifying parties by the Sainte-Laguë formula: each party's votes are divided by 1, 3, 5, 7… and the largest results win seats.
- Each party's electorate MPs are counted first and its list MPs fill the gap up to its share. A party that wins more electorates than its share keeps them all, and Parliament grows by the difference. These are overhang seats. No other party loses seats because of them.
Checked against the official figures: with the election-night votes it gives exactly the published 131 seats (11 overhang), party by party, and with the 2023 official count it gives the 2023 Parliament of 122.
Special votes
The Electoral Commission estimates 399,365 special votes in 2026, about 14% of all votes. In 2023 there were 596,770, about 20%. "Like 2023's specials" applies how each party did in 2023's special votes compared with its election-night share: Greens and Te Pāti Māori did much better in specials, National, ACT and NZ First worse. Parties that did not stand in 2023 get their election-night share.
For electorates, the special votes are spread in proportion to each electorate's election-night count, using the same party pattern. Specials are much higher in some seats (inner-city and Māori electorates especially), so treat the electorate projections as rough. You can always set any electorate's winner yourself.
Data
Electoral Commission preliminary count, as published by RNZ (rnz.co.nz/news/election-2026-results). Data version ge2026-preliminary-2026-11-07T14:45:13.000Z. Party votes and every electorate's candidate votes were cross-checked: the 71 electorates' party votes add up exactly to each party's national total.